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Korean stock volatility falls to a two-month low as tighter rules cool leveraged trading
KOSPI
2026-07-30 02:04:07

JPMorgan says Korea’s KOSPI may be entering a valuation rebound after deleveraging wave

JPMorgan said in a July 29 note that much of the forced deleveraging behind South Korea’s sharp equity sell-off has already run its course, opening what it sees as a valuation recovery window for the KOSPI. The index has fallen nearly 40% from its June 22 high, while leveraged ETF assets have shrunk from $50 billion to $17 billion and hedge fund long-short exposure has dropped from 5.7x to 3.2x. According to the report, leveraged ETF liquidations are complete and hedge fund deleveraging is more than 90% finished. The bank argued that the main driver of the slump was forced unwinds rather than deteriorating fundamentals. It broke leverage into three buckets: leveraged ETFs, hedge funds, and retail margin financing. In JPMorgan’s view, retail financing was never the primary risk, with margin balances standing near $20 billion and representing a smaller share of market capitalization than at the start of the year. The note also said foreign outflows, which exceeded $110 billion this year, were heavily concentrated in two memory chip makers that are also major underlying holdings for leveraged ETFs. As their weights in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell, passive selling pressure eased. With the KOSPI now trading at 5x 12-month forward earnings, JPMorgan said current prices already reflect deep pessimism and highlighted four areas to watch after deleveraging: wealth-effect plays, biopharma, preferred shares, and banks.

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